If anyone is still wondering why the NCAA tournament is called “March Madness,” they got their answer in the form of several upsets in the opening rounds of the tourney. Given the parody we saw this season, I think everyone expected some higher seeds to lose – but few thought we would see so many, as some of the smaller schools flexed their muscles. As the excitement as died down and analysts have begun looking ahead, here’s a look back and the weekend that was and some predictions for the next weekend of excitement.
Looking Back
The madness has already been memorable. It has given us underdogs rising to the occasion, high seeded teams failing us, plenty of personalities, and no perfect brackets. Here are my top storylines and interesting facts from the games so far:
– This postseason is the first time that we have a 15 seed making the Sweet 16 (a team who didn’t even win their regular season conference championship) and is the first time we have 3 teams that are a 12 seed or lower still playing. It’s also the first time that Michigan and Michigan State are playing in the Sweet 16 in the same year.
– Harvard finally got their 1st NCAA tournament win. It’s quite a feat since they don’t have scholarships and lost their 2 best players from last year due to an academic suspension. Hats off to Tommy Amaker on a coaching job well done!
– Wisconsin, Georgetown and Pittsburgh all did the predictable thing and exited the tournament in their first game. Many thought these teams could go far, but all they did was come up short – again!
– Gonzaga wasn’t able to quiet the doubters. After flirting with history and narrowly escaping a loss to a 16 seed, they weren’t able to live up to the hype and lost to Wichita State in the Round of 32. The lowly West bracket now has the following seeds still dancing: 2, 6, 9 and 13. The West Region has been a mess and keeps the door wide open for Ohio State to waltz to Atlanta as the prohibitive favorite.
– LaSalle is looking to become this tourney’s VCU (circa 2011). That year, the Rams went from playing in the First Four all the way to the Final Four. Can the Explorers do the same this year?
– Florida Gulf Coast University (FGCU) is the youngest school in the tourney and has been nothing short of impressive in their first dance. Few had heard of this Fort Myers school before last weekend. The university wasn’t established until 1997, and they didn’t gain full Division 1 membership until 2011, but are making the most of their 1st time in the dance. As these Eagles have soared, so has their national popularity, their website has crashed from so much traffic. It’s likely that you’ll see an enrollment spike at this beach college next year too.
– This weekend marked the end of the tournament for a couple captivating players. Creighton’s Doug McDermott, the small school sweetheart that knows how to score, ended his career with a loss to Duke. On the flip side, ousted were the antics of Marshall Henderson from Ole Miss. Regardless of how you felt about him, that swagger was entertaining.
Opening weekend of the NCAA tournament was a pivotal one for coaches as well. Losses meant pink slips for Tubby Smith at Minnesota and Ben Howland at UCLA. It was also a chance for coaching prodigies and those at smaller schools to showcase themselves and “interview” for openings. Just as Brad Stevens and Shaka Smart upped their stock with tourney runs in recent years, Andy Enfield from FGCU is making a name for himself as he keeps winning and showcasing his coaching system.
Unfortunately, referees stole the spotlight in a few close games. While Ohio State was helped with a questionable charging call before holding off Iowa State, Illinois may have been able to knock off Miami if an out of bounds call hadn’t wrongfully went against them. I know this is part of the game, but its also such a shame to see games decided by the refs when key aspects should be reviewable. Speaking of reviews though, I’m so tired of seeing the explanation of flagrant fouls since there seems to be nearly 1 a game – many of which are players taking advantage of the rules vs being a true flagrant foul. All you can hope for at this point, if that the refs call games consistently and the NCAA takes a look at the rules in the offseason.
Sweet & Elite
I can’t believe we’re already down to a Sweet Sixteen! Thirteen of the remaining schools have won a National Championship before. Despite all the upsets, the East Region managed to go chalk to far – with the top 4 seeds still dancing. Just like directions, the East and West Regions are opposites at this point. In just a few short days, we’ll know who is bound for the Final Four in Atlanta. Until then, many intriguing matchups remain and there should be some good hoops in store for us.
Midwest Region: You have the top 3 seeds left, plus 12 seed Oregon – who everyone will agree was under seeded. Three of the best coaches in college basketball still remain. Louisville will be tested by Oregon (they are definitely playing with a chip on their shoulder) but will likely prevail. The Cardinals have been solid so far at both ends of the court. They say that “defense wins championships” and Louisville is nation’s most efficient team on D. The matchup between Michigan State and Duke is likely to be a close one. They both have what it takes to win the game. It will likely come down to a few things – Duke shoots about 40% from the 3 point line (if MSU can’t stop that, the Blue Devils win), Michigan State has more power on the inside and will try to win the rebounding battle (MSU wins if control those two things), and early foul trouble could loom large for both teams. The x-factor will be the play of Keith Appling for MSU, who sprained his shoulder last week.
Who goes to the Final Four? Louisville
West Region: Thanks to many top seeds falling early, this region is Ohio State’s to lose. The LaSalle Explorers and Wichita State Shockers are two teams that few expected to see here. LaSalle has already won 3 tournament games due to being in the play in round and hope to continue their momentum. Wichita State is a defensive minded team that will try to slow down LaSalle. I expect this game to be a battle of positioning. The Explorers thrive on guard play and transition points while the Shockers rely on inside play and winning the battle of the boards. Ohio State vs Arizona features Thad Matta and Sean Miller, two coaches who worked together at Xavier now facing off to go to the Elite Eight. Barring more upsets, the winner of this game will be going to Atlanta. Arizona will hope a favorable geographic draw and continued hot shooting will be enough as they try to defeat Ohio State. The Buckeyes have played consistently over the last couple of months, but looked beatable against Iowa State. Aaron Craft saved them and will do his best to rattle the Wildcats with his pesky defense. This game will come down to which team wins the rebounding and turnover battles.
Who goes to the Final Four? Ohio State
South Region: It’s 3 power-conference schools and Cinderella. However, FGCU prefers to be called “Dunk City” based on their high flying offense. Kansas, the top seed in this bracket, has looked shaky through 2 games but found ways to win in the second half. They will face Michigan, who is coming over a huge win over VCU and possibly the best game they’ve played all season. If the Wolverines play like that for the rest of the tournament, they’ll be cutting down the nets. However, this is a Michigan team that has been inconsistent and struggles on defense. The Jayhawks will look to capitalize on that and limit their turnovers. Michigan will need to hit 3’s to win and transition points will be big. Jeff Withey and Mitch McGary battling in the paint could decide the outcome. The two schools from Florida are only about 265 miles apart, but much further than that on the basketball court. In fact, the Gators wouldn’t even put the Eagles on their schedule for a scrimmage – but now they have to and I’m guessing that FGCU isn’t forgetting that. They’re fun to watch, love to dunk and their strategy is all about matchups. Fans of the underdog hope that will be enough for FGCU against the Gators – and I’m sure we’ll see more “Eagle Dancing” on the sidelines if it is. On the flip side, Florida is a team that’s solid both offensively and defensively. They are good shooters and rebounders, and I’m sure they won’t be looking past this game. There’s no doubt that have what it takes to end the Eagles run, but will the high flying act find a way to keep dancing? We’ll find out on Friday.
Who goes to the Final Four? Kansas
East Region: The lone region to have the top 4 seeds in the Sweet 16 and probably the most up for grabs. Indiana was built to win it all this year, but it hasn’t been smooth sailing for the Hoosiers. They’ve proven they’re beatable many times but will take their highly efficient offense up against the vaunted Syracuse zone. IU is beatable if the Orange can make their shots. This game is a matchup of two good coaches in Tom Crean and Jim Boeheim, and two of the best guards in the nation in Victor Oladipo and Michael Carter-Williams going at it. The Hoosiers are more balanced, have experience, and will try to break the zone to get back to the Elite 8. Miami keeps rolling, and will try not to get sidetracked by the loss of their big man Reggie Johnson, who needed knee surgery this week. Still, they have one of the best point guards in the country in Shane Larkin and a coach who won’t quit. I’m sure that Jim Larranaga is happy to be playing at the Verizon Center, the same place he cut down the nets 7 years ago to take George Mason to the Final Four. Marquette won their first two tourney games by a combined 3 points and will go as far as Vander Blue (yes, that’s a real name) will take them. Ultimately, I don’t think the Golden Eagles have what it takes to hang with the Hurricanes for 40 minutes and won’t be able to win another close game.
Who goes to the Final Four? Miami
Closing Thought
I know that Turner Sports/CBS pay a lot for the rights to the big dance. While I understand that they want to use it to showcase their talent, the NBA crew from TNT has been horrible. It’s obvious that these guys have watched very little college basketball and they make the half time show almost unwatchable. Hands down, Charles Barkley has been the biggest offender – when he’s not mumbling, he has been bashing the Big Ten over and over again. While most college analysts would agree that it was the strongest conference this year, he won’t stop saying it’s overrated. First, it was the Mountain West that was better and now he’s on the Pac-12 bandwagon. With the possibility of an all-Big Ten Final Four, maybe Chuck would finally eat his words then. I really wish CBS would find people who actually know what’s going on with these teams and games to talk about it, even if they’re only part of the network for the madness!










