In anticipation of the NBA Draft tonight, lets take a look back at the decision young men have to make each year in anticipation for being drafted. Since players are no longer allowed to go to the NBA directly from high school, most choose the route of going to college for a year instead of playing overseas or in the developmental leagues. Once the picks begin, 60 athletes will take a step towards fulfilling their dreams while others will be left wondering “what if” as they look at their options outside of the NBA. Before we talk about tonight, lets go back to late April.
March Madness is over, a champion has been crowned and top basketball players from around the country are left to make a big decision. Historically, if guys were really good, they went directly to the NBA…LeBron James, Kobe Bryant, and Dwight Howard are a few examples. If they couldn’t make that leap, they chose to go to college for at least a couple years to sharpen their skills – and maybe even learn a thing or two. Ever since the rule change in 2005 by NBA Commissioner David Stern that required at least 1 year between High School and the Pro ranks, “one-and-dones” and other underclassman have continued to play a huge role in shaping both the NBA and NCAA basketball landscape on a yearly basis. In the 80’s, The Clash had a hit single titled 
“Should I Stay or Should I Go.” Perhaps this should be the theme song for these student athletes as they decide if they are going to turn pro or return to college for another season.
Coaches and fan bases carefully watched for updates regarding these decisions. The players looked to mentors, scouting reports and past examples as they prepared to make a life-changing choice. Kentucky has become the place to play for a year to prep for the NBA as they’ve had more guys drafted in the last 3 years than any other school, but many others only have a player or 2 that’s even ready to make that leap each season. There are some obvious underclassmen stars that look like men among boys while playing in college that you expect to go pro as soon as possible. Then, there’s a large group of players each year with potential for the NBA – but could also improve both their skills and draft stock with another year of playing in college. In 2012, there were 2 freshmen that fit this description.
Trey Burke
Trey Burke was the Big Ten Freshman of the Year at Michigan and would have likely been drafted in the 2nd round. He returned though, lead U of M to the title game and was named player of the year by 6 different award organizations (plus the Big Ten), and every mock draft has him going as a lottery pick. Then you have Quincy Miller – he was the Big 12 Freshman of the year from Baylor and decided to go pro. He was taken by the Denver Nuggets in the 2nd round (38th overall pick), however he spent most of this past season playing for their d-league team in Iowa and only appeared in 7 NBA games for an average of less than 4 minutes. If he had chosen the same path as Burke, Baylor would have been more of a force this season, his draft stock would have also likely improved, leading to more money and playing time. It’s a gamble each player has to take, but are great examples to look at when making such a big decision.
The one variable that no one can account for though is injuries – just ask Nerlens Noel from Kentucky. He was a lock to be the top overall pick in the 2013 draft until he tore is ACL in February. He obviously had no choice but to play somewhere this year until he was eligible to be drafted, but no one expected such an unfortunate fall to take place. From that point on, his worth in the draft has been questioned. While the majority of mock drafts still have him going as the first overall pick, it’s no longer consensus and the injury no doubt cost him in money, ability to continue polishing his skills and has the potential to impact his NBA career.
As each player asked themselves if they should stay or go back in April, the most impactful underclassmen seemed to be split on the decision. Some of the guys who will likely hear their name called tonight in addition to Trey Burke are Tim Hardaway Jr (Michigan), Shane Larkin (Miami), Otto Porter (Georgetown) and Cody Zeller (Indiana). They will all look to make their mark on the NBA while leaving big shoes to fill at their schools. All of them have the skills to make it at the next level and I’m sure a combination of a weaker draft class and the ability to get a paycheck versus risking injury in another year at college weighed into this decision.
Although many found the allure of the NBA and the financial benefits that come with it too appealing to pass up, there were some guys who surprised most analysts when they decided to come back to college. After Russ Smith lead Louisville to the NCAA crown, it was a foregone conclusion that he was gone – until he said that he’ll be back to improve his skills and make the Cardinals a contender to repeat. Marcus Smart was the Big 12 Player and Freshman of the Year after an outstanding season at Oklahoma State. He was expected to be the 1st point guard taken in the draft, but his final game of the season caused him to turn down the money after a heartbreaking loss that included a wrist injury. Now, he returns with Brown and Nash with OSU’s version of the “big 3” to take a run at the title before running off to the NBA. Although the University of Michigan lost Burke and Hardaway, they have 2 key returns too with Glenn Robinson III and Mitch McGary. Many wondered if all 4 would bolt after the run they made this spring (and likely would have if they won it all), but these two potential lottery picks decided to come back for another season. While they helped influence the other to stay, this was huge for the Wolverines to remain a contender in the Big Ten and build on the momentum they gained last season. Just 70 miles away, potential 1st round picks Gary Harris (Big Ten Freshman of the Year) and Adreian Payne also announced they’ll be returning to Michigan State. With their return, the Spartans are ranked #2 in pre-season polls (yes, this is early – but still shows the potential seen in this team). They will look to lead MSU back to a Final Four while also working to become lottery locks for the 2014 draft.
As we see every year, a host of underclassmen have made the decision leave school early in order to hear the commissioner call their name to join the most elite of basketball talent, yet this year a rare number of athletes are returning to school, putting off their NBA dreams to hone their skills and get closer to a degree. This surprising turn of events should make for another unbelievable NCAA season when they tip off later this year!
Nate Wolters
Dark Horse to Watch for the in draft and NBA: Nate Wolters. After breaking records at South Dakota State, the team fell short to Michigan in the tourney. He’s talented with good size and can score – and has the potential to be a contributor at the next level.
Ms Mittens Mound 