As the Muse lyrics go, “some kind of madness has started to evolve.” This song could have been written about the middle of March. Since Selection Sunday, the time of “March Madness” is in full swing as people debate the teams that were selected, make their picks, and get excited about the long weekends of games to come. I’ve grown to love this time of year since I was young watching to see if my team got in and what their matchups looked like to now having attended every round of the tournament except the First Four. I love college hoops and hope all of you will enjoy the madness that evolves starting tomorrow.

I enjoyed watching the conference tournaments, but wonder how much the selection committee used them when doing seeding. I’m also tired of hearing how they talk about a “body of work” for some teams who haven’t looked the best lately. In many cases, the key wins for these teams occurred early in the season and often before a now-strong team was even ranked.  The breakdown by conferences was also pretty confusing since I thought the Big 12 was overrated and didn’t understand how a conference like the A-10 could get as many invites as the Big 10 and ACC. I did feel bad for SMU…..a ranked team that didn’t make it to the dance when other schools that had similar resumes did. I hope Larry Brown can win the NIT on his comeback tour. For the big dance, it will all play out on the court in the end, but it won’t stop the committee critics from asking questions. Here are my thoughts on the top seeds and teams to watch for in each region.

South
While Florida is the number one overall seed, they’ve looked vulnerable lately and could lose if a team can go up big early and hold onto the lead. Billy Donovan looks to join an elite group of coaches if he can get a 3^rd NCAA title. Number 2 Kansas is the wildcard of the region based on the health of center Joel Embiid. If they can keep winning until he’s back (and he’s actually healthy when he does vs being a liability), they could be poised to win it all. Syracuse getting a 3 seed surprised me with how much they’ve lost in the past month, but their zone can be tough against foes who are unfamiliar with it, and can be very good when they turn it on – I could see them losing opening weekend or getting to Dallas, just hard to get a pulse on them. Although I don’t know much about UCLA, I consider them to be a weak 4 seed and don’t expect them to make a run. VCU better make a run now that Shaka Smart went public against Coach K to defend all the bids that the A-10 got. No one wants to see Coach K be right…
Potential Upsets: Tulsa over UCLA and Dayton over Ohio State
Dark Horse: Western Michigan
Region Winner: Kansas

East
This is where you have the weakest top two seeds and strongest ¾ combo. Top seed Virginia struggles to score even though they found a way to win the ACC regular season and tournament titles.  With their style, they won’t blow anyone out, and playing too many games close in this tournament could spell doom for the Cavaliers. Villanova has been up and down, but will be out if they face a team that plays them like Creighton did. 3 seed Iowa State comes in hot from winning their conference tourney but haven’t looked so good when tested away from “Hilton Magic”. The 4 seed of Michigan State is now the popular pick to win it all (which makes me both excited and nervous) after getting their squad back and looking dominant cruising through the Big Ten tourney. Izzo’s Final Four streak is in jeopardy and he has his team looking like they’ll continue it. North Carolina is the wildcard in this region since they’ve beat some of the best, defeating all 5 of the pre-season top ranked teams, while losing some head-scratchers to really bad teams along the way.
Potential Upsets: Harvard over Cincinnati and Providence over North Carolina
Dark Horse: UConn
Region Winner: Michigan State

West
Arizona is the 1 seed in what I think is the easiest region. They’ve been upset some recently dealing with injury issues of their own, but still did enough to get a top seed and I think Sean Miller will have them ready. Wisconsin has questionable 2 seed here and gets to play in Milwaukee – seems a little unfair, but lucky for them. Creighton has a 3 seed and the player of the year, but their conference tourney showed that a team is better that a player and could be an early out if the game becomes “the McDermott show.” Steve Fisher is back with San Diego State in the tourney as a 4 seed and could also make some noise. Oklahoma State has looked good since Smart came back, but we’ll see if they have the matchups to knock out Zona. This region could easily go chalk or get blown up!
Potential Upsets: Nebraska over Baylor and New Mexico St over SDSU
Dark Horse: BYU
Region Winner: Arizona

Midwest
Wichita State got their 1 seed after an undefeated season, but also ended up in the hardest bracket. With Michigan at 2, Duke at 3 and Louisville at 4, they will either have a short dance or a lot of new fans and believers if they make it back to the Final Four. All 3 of those teams have the talent and experience to make it to Dallas and should make for some fun games to watch. The young stars of Kentucky could make things interesting if they get on a roll and NC State doesn’t look like they are ready to stop dancing after winning their play-in game last night. I expect to see either Michigan, Duke or Louisville come out of this bracket, but it’s hard to pick who will make it to Dallas.
Potential Upsets: NC State over St Louis and Iowa/Tenn over UMass
Dark Horse: Kentucky
Region Winner: Louisville

Three of the last 4 NCAA Champions got on a hot streak by winning their conference tournament before coming in to win 6 straight and take the crown. If that’s the case this year, here are some teams to watch out for: Florida, Virginia, Wichita State, Iowa State, Louisville, Michigan State and UCLA. Let the madness evolve!

Mound Moment: The First Four is a joke. I’m usually pulling for power conferences to get the bids, but it is completely unfair for the mid-majors who get an auto bid to them have to go play in a small college arena with very few fans in attendance. I would prefer to get rid of the First Four all together, but if they want to keep it around, put all bubble teams there and let auto bids get their chance to be a part of actual March Madness and have their moment in the spotlight.